Al Khaleej Saihat 3-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.00 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Khaleej Saihat register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Fayha in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 45% versus Al-Fayha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 47% | Al-Fayha 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.58 xG and Al-Fayha 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.964 / defence 1.023 | Al-Fayha attack 1.062 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.387. Data: 47 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 47 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Khaleej Saihat at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 70% | Al-Fayha 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.58 / Al-Fayha 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.964 / def 1.023 | Al-Fayha attack 1.062 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Al-Fayha xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Al Khaleej Saihat 3 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.06x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
39%
2.57
25%
3.97
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
3.09
1.51
Al-Fayha xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.51 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 14W 8D 25L from 47 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 19L across 47 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.11 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 8W 5D 10L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 7W 7D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 14W 8D 25L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.26 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 56%, Al-Fayha 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 52% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 65% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 52% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Khaleej Saihat run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Fayha 3-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.58 xG and Al-Fayha 1.51 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.96 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fayha attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 39% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 36%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 47%, Al-Fayha 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.06 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.