Al Okhdood 1-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Okhdood face Al Shabab.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al Shabab at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 22 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Al Okhdood have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.

Al Shabab — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Al Shabab's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Okhdood at 1.20 PPG versus Al Shabab's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al Shabab 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Al Okhdood 1–1 Al Shabab — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 35% versus Al Shabab 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 41% | Al Shabab 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.06 xG and Al Shabab 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.667 / defence 0.999 | Al Shabab attack 0.802 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.358. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 17 games and Al Shabab's last 47.

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 34% | Draw 31% | Al Shabab 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.97 | Draw 3.21 | Al Shabab 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 33% (last 9 home games) | Al Shabab 60% (last 10 away games).

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