Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taee vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Al-Fateh travel to Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium to take on Al Taee. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 May 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Taee) versus 1.20 (Al-Fateh). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Taee register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Taee: 5 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Fateh, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Taee winning.
The historical record gives Al Taee a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 51% versus Al-Fateh 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 56% | Al-Fateh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.37 xG and Al-Fateh 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 0.841 / defence 1.044 | Al-Fateh attack 1.076 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.411. Data: 61 Al Taee games / 61 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 31% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 41%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fateh are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 60% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 31% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Taee 1.37 / Al-Fateh 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 0.841 / def 1.044 | Al-Fateh attack 1.076 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al-Fateh xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Al Taee 3 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 31% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taee 5W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fateh in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taee's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Fateh's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Taee's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.66
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.95
1.59
Al-Fateh xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al Taee and 1.59 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taee's recent record stands at 17W 11D 33L from 61 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 24L across 61 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taee on 1.02 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 12W 5D 13L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 13W 5D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Al Taee are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.64 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 17W 11D 33L in their last 61 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 24W 13D 24L in their last 61 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taee and Al-Fateh runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taee have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Al Taee's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Al Taee
0
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 6, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Fateh?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 50%, Al-Fateh 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Taee and 80% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Taee's games and 70% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Taee's matches and 80% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 3-1 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.37 xG and Al-Fateh 1.59 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Taee beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 31% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 41%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al Taee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 56%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.02 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.