Al Wehda Club 0-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Raed encounter.

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Full Analysis

King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al Wehda Club have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 3W 3D 4L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Raed (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Raed away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Raed in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al-Raed and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Raed winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 51% versus Al-Raed 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 49% | Al-Raed 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.53 xG and Al-Raed 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.999 / defence 1.207 | Al-Raed attack 0.977 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.406. Data: 61 Al Wehda Club games / 61 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 80% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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