Casa Pia 0-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Famalicao.

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Analysis

Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Casa Pia have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Famalicao have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Famalicao away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Casa Pia against 0.80 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2023, ended Casa Pia 0–1 Famalicao — a Famalicao win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 44% versus Famalicao 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 40% | Famalicao 50%). Note also that Famalicao surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Casa Pia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.02 xG and Famalicao 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.692 / defence 1.005 | Famalicao attack 0.765 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.224. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Famalicao's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 50 games and Famalicao's last 50.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 36% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 32%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.75 | Draw 3.20 | Famalicao 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 50% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 50% (last 10 away games).

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