Valerenga 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valerenga face Rosenborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Valerenga welcome Rosenborg to Intility Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 18:13 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Valerenga have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valerenga's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valerenga at 1.30 PPG versus Rosenborg's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Valerenga's games and 60% of Rosenborg's (from Valerenga's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Valerenga, 2 for Rosenborg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Valerenga 3–1 Rosenborg — a Valerenga win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 60% and Rosenborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Valerenga 66% | Rosenborg 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Valerenga surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.96 xG and Rosenborg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.864 / defence 1.277 | Rosenborg attack 0.864 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.337. Rosenborg's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Valerenga's projected output up. Valerenga's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rosenborg's projected output up. Data: built from Valerenga's last 55 games and Rosenborg's last 55.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 49% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.04 | Draw 4.57 | Rosenborg 3.44. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valerenga's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valerenga 70% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 18:13 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 49% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Valerenga 1.96 / Rosenborg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.864 / def 1.277 | Rosenborg attack 0.864 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Rosenborg xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valerenga vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Valerenga vs Rosenborg kick off?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:13 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Valerenga 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Valerenga vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Rosenborg part of?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 49% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Valerenga and Rosenborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valerenga vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valerenga's last 55 games and Rosenborg's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
49%
2.04
22%
4.57
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.44
1.48
Rosenborg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valerenga vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.48 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 11D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (24W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.24 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 11W 4D 12L across their last 27 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 9D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.84 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
Valerenga (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valerenga
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Valerenga vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Rosenborg away?
Valerenga's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.37 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won Valerenga 0-4 Rosenborg.
Valerenga's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Valerenga vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valerenga have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 52%, Rosenborg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Valerenga and 70% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valerenga vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valerenga and Rosenborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Valerenga's games and 70% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valerenga and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Valerenga's matches and 70% of Rosenborg's.
Do Valerenga and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Valerenga's recent matches and 89% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valerenga.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Valerenga 1-3 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.96 xG and Rosenborg 1.48 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.86 / defence 1.28 against Rosenborg attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 49% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 29%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 66%, Rosenborg 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.24 PPG, Rosenborg 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.