Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Haugesund face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Haugesund welcome Aalesund to Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Haugesund have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Aalesund stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aalesund's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haugesund 0.90 PPG, Aalesund 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Haugesund's last 10 home games and Aalesund's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Aalesund and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Haugesund 0–0 Aalesund — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Aalesund in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 58% versus Aalesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 54% | Aalesund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.89 xG and Aalesund 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.748 / defence 1.014 | Aalesund attack 0.807 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.358. Haugesund's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.89. Aalesund's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haugesund's projected output up. Data: built from Haugesund's last 55 games and Aalesund's last 55.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 55% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.80 | Draw 4.46 | Aalesund 4.51. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Haugesund's last 10 home games and Aalesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haugesund 70% (last 10 home games) | Aalesund 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 55% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Haugesund 1.89 / Aalesund 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.748 / def 1.014 | Aalesund attack 0.807 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Aalesund xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haugesund vs Aalesund FAQs
What time does Haugesund vs Aalesund kick off?
Haugesund vs Aalesund kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Haugesund 6 - 1 Aalesund.
Where is Haugesund vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Aalesund part of?
Haugesund vs Aalesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 55% chance of winning, Aalesund a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Haugesund and Aalesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haugesund vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Aalesund's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haugesund's last 55 games and Aalesund's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
55%
1.80
22%
4.46
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.00
1.11
Aalesund xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
29.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haugesund vs Aalesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.11 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 17W 14D 24L from 55 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 28L across 55 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.18 PPG, Aalesund on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 11W 6D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aalesund's away record stands at 5W 4D 18L across their last 27 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 0.96 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
Haugesund (Home) vs Aalesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haugesund
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Haugesund vs Aalesund Form FAQs
What form are Haugesund and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 15W 12D 28L in their last 55 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Aalesund away?
Haugesund's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.44 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 28 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Oct 2023, when Haugesund won Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Haugesund's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Haugesund
2
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Haugesund vs Aalesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Aalesund?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Haugesund have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Aalesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2023: Haugesund 6-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Aalesund?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 70%, Aalesund 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Haugesund and 74% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haugesund vs Aalesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haugesund and Aalesund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Haugesund's games and 52% of Aalesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haugesund and Aalesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Haugesund's matches and 74% of Aalesund's.
Do Haugesund and Aalesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Haugesund's recent matches and 74% of Aalesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Aalesund 6-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.89 xG and Aalesund 1.11 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Aalesund attack 0.81 / defence 1.39, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 55% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 22%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 54%, Aalesund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Aalesund's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.18 PPG, Aalesund 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.