Stromsgodset 1-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 38%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stromsgodset welcome Viking to Marienlyst Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stromsgodset stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Stromsgodset have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Viking have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Viking have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Viking are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Stromsgodset's games and 60% of Viking's (from Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Stromsgodset have won 1, Viking 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2023, ended Stromsgodset 1–1 Viking — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 51% and Viking 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 56% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.44 xG and Viking 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.934 / defence 0.972 | Viking attack 1.065 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.357. Data: built from Stromsgodset's last 55 games and Viking's last 55.
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 38% | Draw 25% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.62 | Draw 3.99 | Viking 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stromsgodset's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stromsgodset 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 38% | Draw 25% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Stromsgodset 1.44 / Viking 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.934 / def 0.972 | Viking attack 1.065 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Viking xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking FAQs
What time does Stromsgodset vs Viking kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Stromsgodset 1 - 0 Viking.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Viking part of?
Stromsgodset vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 38% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stromsgodset and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stromsgodset vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stromsgodset's last 55 games and Viking's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.99
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.84
1.41
Viking xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.41 for Viking, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 9D 28L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Viking's form line: 25W 12D 18L from 55 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 3D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Viking have gone 11W 5D 11L from their last 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.85 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 71%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Viking
Blended
Stromsgodset (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stromsgodset
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 18W 9D 28L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 12D 18L in their last 55 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Viking away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.56 PPG; Viking away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 2 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Viking have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won Viking 5-2 Stromsgodset.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stromsgodset have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2025: Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 63%, Viking at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Stromsgodset and 67% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stromsgodset vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stromsgodset and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Stromsgodset's games and 74% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Stromsgodset and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Stromsgodset's matches and 67% of Viking's.
Do Stromsgodset and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 67% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stromsgodset edge out Viking 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Viking 1-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.44 xG and Viking 1.41 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Viking landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Viking attack 1.06 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 38% | Draw 25% | Viking 37%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 56%, Viking 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Viking's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Stromsgodset winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.