Sandefjord 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 38%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Brann at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sandefjord at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brann — last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Brann away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Brann's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sandefjord have won 0, Brann 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended Sandefjord 0–0 Brann — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Brann in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 56% versus Brann 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 60% | Brann 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sandefjord surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Brann have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Brann 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.890 / defence 0.965 | Brann attack 0.973 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.357. Brann bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sandefjord's projected output down. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 55 games and Brann's last 25.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Brann 36%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.66 | Draw 3.78 | Brann 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 60% (last 10 home games) | Brann 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Brann 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Sandefjord 1.31 / Brann 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.890 / def 0.965 | Brann attack 0.973 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brann xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Brann FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Brann kick off?
Sandefjord vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Sandefjord 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Sandefjord vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Brann part of?
Sandefjord vs Brann is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, Brann a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sandefjord and Brann will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sandefjord vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.89x the league average against Brann's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 55 games and Brann's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.78
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.58
1.27
Brann xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Brann Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.27 for Brann, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 6D 14L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Brann sit at 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (16W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across their last 12 home games, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 12 away games (6W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.84 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Brann
Blended
Sandefjord (Home) vs Brann (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Sandefjord vs Brann Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Brann have gone 16W 3D 6L in their last 25 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.33 PPG; Brann away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Brann in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won Sandefjord 0-3 Brann.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Brann specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
5
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Brann H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Brann last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Sandefjord 0-0 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 50%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sandefjord) and 50% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Brann in 33%; Sandefjord have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Brann Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Brann matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandefjord and Brann matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sandefjord's recent games and 50% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Brann matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 100% of Brann's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Sandefjord and Brann drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Brann 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Brann attack 0.97 / defence 0.80, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Brann 36%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 60%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.