Brann 1-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brann Stadion plays host to Brann versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 8W 1D 1L at Brann Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Brann. A 1.10 PPG lead over Molde (2.50 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Molde in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Molde hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with Brann winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Molde 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 60% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.34 xG and Molde 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.137 / defence 0.712 | Molde attack 1.153 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.510. Brann's defence rating of 0.712 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Brann games / 40 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 26% | Molde 34%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Molde 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Molde lead the H2H ledger, but Brann carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 39% | Draw 26% | Molde 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Brann 1.34 / Molde 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.137 / def 0.712 | Molde attack 1.153 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.510 • Poisson stance: Brann (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Molde xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Molde kick off?
Brann vs Molde kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Molde?
Brann 1 - 3 Molde.
Where is Brann vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Molde part of?
Brann vs Molde is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 39% chance of winning, Molde a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Brann and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Molde?
Record (5 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Molde 4W.
What form are Brann and Molde in?
Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Molde (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.14x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.15x) against Brann's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.78
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brann xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Molde xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Brann and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brann and 1.24 for Molde, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brann's recent record stands at 19W 4D 7L from 30 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 9L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.03 PPG for Brann against 1.70 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brann have managed 12W 2D 1L from 15 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.17 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Molde in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 games (2.03 PPG), while Molde have gone 15W 6D 9L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Molde away?
Brann's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.53 PPG; Molde away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Brann or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Molde in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Molde 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Brann, 67% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Brann and 73% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brann's games and 67% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Brann's matches and 73% of Molde's.
Do Brann and Molde tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Molde in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Brann 1-3 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.34 xG and Molde 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.14 / defence 0.71 against Molde attack 1.15 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 39% | Draw 26% | Molde 34%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 2.03 PPG, Molde 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Molde win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.