Bodo/Glimt 2-2 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face KFUM Oslo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.209 / defence 0.608 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.962 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.530. Bodo/Glimt have a tight defence (rating 0.608), which is pulling KFUM Oslo's projected output down. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 39 games and KFUM Oslo's last 9.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 25%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.15 | Draw 3.56 | KFUM Oslo 3.96. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.32 / KFUM Oslo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.209 / def 0.608 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.962 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.90
KFUM Oslo xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 May 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 47% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.21x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.96x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 39 games and KFUM Oslo's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.56
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.22
0.90
KFUM Oslo xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.90 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 12 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 3-0 KFUM Oslo on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 July 2026: KFUM Oslo 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KFUM Oslo outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.21 / defence 0.61 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 25%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.