Brann 2-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brann welcome Kristiansund BK to Brann Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 18). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brann stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Brann have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Kristiansund BK have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Brann carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Brann's games and 60% of Kristiansund BK's (from Brann's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Brann, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Brann 2–2 Kristiansund BK — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Brann trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Kristiansund BK 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Kristiansund BK 60%). Note also that Kristiansund BK surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Brann recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.86 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.112 / defence 0.837 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.771 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.534. Kristiansund BK's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brann's projected output up. Kristiansund BK's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Brann's last 41 games and Kristiansund BK's last 10.
Result probabilities: Brann 58% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 20%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.73 | Draw 4.45 | Kristiansund BK 5.06. The model has a clear lean to Brann (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 70% (last 10 home games) | Kristiansund BK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 18 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 58% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Brann 1.86 / Kristiansund BK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.112 / def 0.837 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.771 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Brann (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Kristiansund BK xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs Kristiansund BK FAQs
What time does Brann vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Brann vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 May 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Kristiansund BK?
Brann 2 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Brann vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Brann vs Kristiansund BK is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 18) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 58% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brann and Kristiansund BK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brann vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.11x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 41 games and Kristiansund BK's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.45
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Brann xG
Total xG
2.85
0.99
Kristiansund BK xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
3%
32.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs Kristiansund BK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Brann and 0.99 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann's recent record stands at 19W 4D 7L from 30 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 16L across 30 games — 0.87 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brann by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brann have managed 12W 2D 1L from their last 15 home games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 2W 3D 10L across their last 15 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.23 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
Brann (Home) vs Kristiansund BK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Early Season
❓ Brann vs Kristiansund BK Form FAQs
What form are Brann and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 19W 4D 7L in their last 30 games (2.03 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Brann's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.53 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Brann or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Brann
4
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs Kristiansund BK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Kristiansund BK?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 3, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Kristiansund BK 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Kristiansund BK?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 67%, Kristiansund BK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Brann and 53% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs Kristiansund BK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and Kristiansund BK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Brann's games and 53% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brann and Kristiansund BK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Brann's matches and 53% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Brann and Kristiansund BK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Brann's recent matches and 80% of Kristiansund BK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out Kristiansund BK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.86 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.77 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 58% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 20%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Kristiansund BK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.