Viking 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Viking at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Viking face Bodo/Glimt.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Viking (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Viking 0–1 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Viking — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 57% | Bodo/Glimt 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.49 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.183 / defence 0.863 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.140 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.375. Data: built from Viking's last 47 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 48.

Result probabilities: Viking 41% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 34%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.46 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 60% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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