Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 5). Kick-off is Thursday 27 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.88 xG and Haugesund 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.425 / defence 0.899 | Haugesund attack 0.873 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.399. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.425 — their 1.88 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 34 games and Haugesund's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.87 | Draw 3.76 | Haugesund 5.02. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 34 games, Haugesund 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 5 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 27 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.88 / Haugesund 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.425 / def 0.899 | Haugesund attack 0.873 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 27 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 5) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 54% chance of winning, Haugesund a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.43) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 34 games and Haugesund's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
54%
1.87
27%
3.76
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.98
1.10
Haugesund xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
3%
32.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.10 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 26W 3D 1L from 30 games, a 2.70 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 13L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 15W 0D 0L from their last 15 home games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across their last 15 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Haugesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the most recent 6 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 73% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.88 xG and Haugesund 1.10 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.43 / defence 0.90 against Haugesund attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 20%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.