Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sandefjord travel to Aspmyra Stadion to take on Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bodo/Glimt have posted 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandefjord stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Sandefjord have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 70% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.95 xG and Sandefjord 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / defence 0.813 | Sandefjord attack 1.133 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.458 — their 1.95 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 35 games and Sandefjord's last 33.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 22%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.87 | Draw 4.00 | Sandefjord 4.62. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.95 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 10 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.95 / Sandefjord 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.458 / def 0.813 | Sandefjord attack 1.133 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord FAQs
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 10) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 53% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.46x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bodo/Glimt's last 35 games and Sandefjord's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.00
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.14
1.20
Sandefjord xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
3%
32.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.20 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 30 games, going 26W 3D 1L for 2.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (9W 8D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.53 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 15W 0D 0L across their last 15 home games, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 15 away games (6W 1D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt (Home) vs Sandefjord (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Form FAQs
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Sandefjord away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 4-1 Sandefjord.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
1
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Sandefjord have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 53% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandefjord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bodo/Glimt vs Sandefjord Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 53% of Sandefjord's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 73% of Sandefjord's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodo/Glimt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Bodo/Glimt and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.95 xG and Sandefjord 1.20 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Sandefjord attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 25% | Sandefjord 22%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.