Stabaek vs Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Nadderud Stadion to face Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Brann (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Stabaek against 1.30 for Brann. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stabaek lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 53% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.72 xG and Brann 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.937 / defence 0.991 | Brann attack 0.997 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Stabaek games / 30 Brann games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 45% | Draw 26% | Brann 29%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 3.45. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 45% | Draw 26% | Brann 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Stabaek 1.72 / Brann 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.937 / def 0.991 | Brann attack 0.997 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Brann xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Brann kick off?
Stabaek vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
Where is Stabaek vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Brann part of?
Stabaek vs Brann is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 45% chance of winning, Brann a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stabaek and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Brann 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Brann in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Brann (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.94) and Brann's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.00x) against Stabaek's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.85
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.05
1.33
Brann xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.33 for Brann, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 9W 12D 9L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Stabaek against 1.20 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 4D 6L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.33 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 73%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Brann in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Brann away?
Stabaek's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.40 PPG; Brann away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brann in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Brann have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 4-1 on 16 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
2
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Brann have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 40%, Brann 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Stabaek) and 53% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Brann in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stabaek's recent matches and 60% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Stabaek's recent games and 53% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Brann tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Brann in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stabaek's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Stabaek and Brann drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.72 xG and Brann 1.33 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Brann landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 45% | Draw 26% | Brann 29%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 53%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.30 PPG, Brann 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.