Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Stadion plays host to Haugesund versus ODD Ballklubb in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 25 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Haugesund's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of ODD Ballklubb's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, ODD Ballklubb in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Haugesund 0W, ODD Ballklubb 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus ODD Ballklubb 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 60% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.82 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.950 / defence 1.081 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.039 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Haugesund games / 30 ODD Ballklubb games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Haugesund 44% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 31%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 44% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Haugesund 1.82 / ODD Ballklubb 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.950 / def 1.081 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.039 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.52
ODD Ballklubb xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 44% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (1.04x) against Haugesund's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.03
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.33
1.52
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
5%
19.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.52 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Haugesund come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 6D 13L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Haugesund against 1.43 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Haugesund's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (5W 2D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Haugesund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 0-4 on 16 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
4
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2024, when Haugesund 2-1 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Haugesund) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Haugesund's recent matches and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.82 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.52 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.8 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 44% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 31%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.30 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.