PSV Eindhoven 4-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Philips Stadion plays host to PSV Eindhoven versus PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PSV Eindhoven have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven at Philips Stadion this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in PSV Eindhoven's favour (3.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PSV Eindhoven lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 2–1 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 53% versus PEC Zwolle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 76% | PEC Zwolle 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.496 / defence 0.829 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.028 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.400. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.496 — their λ of 3.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 PSV Eindhoven games / 11 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 73% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 11%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | PEC Zwolle 9.09. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.21. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.21 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (3.01 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.21 combined xG gives a 79% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 50% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 73% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 68% | xG PSV Eindhoven 3.01 / PEC Zwolle 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.496 / def 0.829 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.028 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.01
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PEC Zwolle xG
68%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
PSV Eindhoven 4 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 73% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle?
Record (2 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PSV Eindhoven's attack rating (1.50) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 3.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.03x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 3-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
73%
1.38
17%
6.00
11%
9.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.01
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.21
1.19
PEC Zwolle xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
9.40
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
5%
20.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
1%
191.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 3.01 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.19 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 4.21.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven's recent record stands at 34W 6D 5L from 45 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 27W 6D 12L across 45 games — 1.93 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PSV Eindhoven have managed 19W 2D 1L from 22 games — 2.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 12W 3D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.18 scored and 1.27 conceded. PEC Zwolle's attacking output running into PSV Eindhoven's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 34W 6D 5L in their last 45 games (2.40 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 27W 6D 12L in their last 45 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.68 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.77 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 1-7 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 6-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 46%, PEC Zwolle 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for PSV Eindhoven and 73% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 68% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 73% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 4-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat PEC Zwolle 4-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.01 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.19 xG, a combined 4.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.50 / defence 0.83 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 73% | Draw 17% | PEC Zwolle 11%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 76%, PEC Zwolle 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.93. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.18 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.