Fortuna Sittard 4-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Sittard face Heracles.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Heracles travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fortuna Sittard at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Heracles stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fortuna Sittard 0.90 PPG, Heracles 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 2 for Heracles and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2022, ended Fortuna Sittard 0–2 Heracles — a Heracles win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Heracles trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus Heracles 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 62% | Heracles 76%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortuna Sittard surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while Heracles have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.64 xG and Heracles 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.740 / defence 0.929 | Heracles attack 0.717 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.353. Fortuna Sittard's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.64. Heracles's defence rating of 1.310 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Sittard's projected output up. Heracles's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Fortuna Sittard's last 45 games and Heracles's last 11.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 31% | Heracles 17%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.94 | Draw 3.20 | Heracles 5.77. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Fortuna Sittard's last 10 home games and Heracles's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortuna Sittard 40% (last 10 home games) | Heracles 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 12 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 31% | Heracles 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.64 / Heracles 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.740 / def 0.929 | Heracles attack 0.717 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Heracles xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles FAQs
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Fortuna Sittard 4 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 12) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 51% chance of winning, Heracles a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Heracles will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.74x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Sittard's last 45 games and Heracles's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
51%
1.94
31%
3.20
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.54
0.90
Heracles xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.90 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 12W 10D 23L from 45 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 27W 6D 12L across 45 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heracles by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 7W 6D 9L from their last 22 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 10W 3D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 2.33 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heracles
Blended
Fortuna Sittard (Home) vs Heracles (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Heracles have gone 27W 6D 12L in their last 45 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Heracles away?
Heracles's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.23 PPG; Heracles away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won Fortuna Sittard 4-1 Heracles.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Heracles last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 41%, Heracles 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fortuna Sittard and 77% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Sittard vs Heracles Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Sittard and Heracles matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 59% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortuna Sittard and Heracles matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 77% of Heracles's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Heracles matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 73% of Heracles's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Sittard run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Heracles 4-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.64 xG and Heracles 0.90 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.31, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 51% | Draw 31% | Heracles 17%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 62%, Heracles 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Heracles arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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