PEC Zwolle 2-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as PEC Zwolle take on Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PEC Zwolle at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Sittard's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 0W 2D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2022, ended PEC Zwolle 1–0 Fortuna Sittard — a PEC Zwolle win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 59% versus Fortuna Sittard 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 64% | Fortuna Sittard 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.17 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.636 / defence 1.166 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.785 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.340. PEC Zwolle's attack rating of 0.636 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Fortuna Sittard's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 10 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 44.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 31% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Sittard 34%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 3.23 | Draw 2.85 | Fortuna Sittard 2.95. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 30% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 11 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 31% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Sittard 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.17 / Fortuna Sittard 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.636 / def 1.166 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.785 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Fortuna Sittard xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 11) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 31% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.64) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.79x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 10 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
35%
2.85
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Fortuna Sittard xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.23 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 44 games, going 26W 6D 12L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.05 PPG from 44 outings (12W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
PEC Zwolle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.07 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 26W 6D 12L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.05 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.86 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won Fortuna Sittard 1-4 PEC Zwolle on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, Fortuna Sittard 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for PEC Zwolle and 77% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 64% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 77% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 73% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Fortuna Sittard 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.17 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.64 / defence 1.17 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 31% | Draw 35% | Fortuna Sittard 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 64%, Fortuna Sittard 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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