PEC Zwolle 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Willem II meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Willem II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for PEC Zwolle, 1 for Willem II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 3–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 61% and Willem II 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 59% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.58 xG and Willem II 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / defence 1.046 | Willem II attack 0.785 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.286. Data: 49 PEC Zwolle games / 15 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 25% | Willem II 25%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 4.00. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 25% | Willem II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.58 / Willem II 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.961 / def 1.046 | Willem II attack 0.785 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Willem II xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Willem II kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 Willem II.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 49% chance of winning, Willem II a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): PEC Zwolle 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Willem II in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.96x the league average against Willem II's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.79x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
49%
2.02
25%
3.97
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.63
1.06
Willem II xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
19.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.06 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 13D 23L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 26W 12D 11L from 49 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (9W 3D 12L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 11W 7D 6L from 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.82 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Willem II in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 13D 23L in their last 49 games (1.06 PPG), while Willem II have gone 26W 12D 11L in their last 49 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.25 PPG; Willem II away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
1
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Willem II have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Willem II?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 62%, Willem II 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PEC Zwolle) and 29% (Willem II).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of PEC Zwolle's games and 54% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 29% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Willem II tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Willem II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.58 xG and Willem II 1.06 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 49% | Draw 25% | Willem II 25%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 59%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.