NAC Breda 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 7W 1D 2L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
AZ Alkmaar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 59% versus AZ Alkmaar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 57% | AZ Alkmaar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.22 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.826 / defence 0.946 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.048 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.289. Data: 15 NAC Breda games / 49 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 38%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | AZ Alkmaar 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | AZ Alkmaar 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG NAC Breda 1.22 / AZ Alkmaar 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.826 / def 0.946 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.048 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.28
AZ Alkmaar xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 35% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.83) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.05x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.71
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.28
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.28 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 22W 11D 16L from 49 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar, meanwhile, have gone 27W 10D 12L across 49 games — 1.86 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.86 for AZ Alkmaar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 12W 6D 6L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AZ Alkmaar's away record stands at 12W 6D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 10D 12L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.75 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.75 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 62%, AZ Alkmaar 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (NAC Breda) and 62% (AZ Alkmaar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of NAC Breda's games and 50% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of NAC Breda's matches and 62% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do NAC Breda and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.22 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 35% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 38%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 57%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.57 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.