Waalwijk 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet in-form PEC Zwolle provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 1W 3D 6L at Mandemakers Stadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. PEC Zwolle are 0.60 PPG clear of Waalwijk in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 58% versus PEC Zwolle 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | PEC Zwolle 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.817 / defence 1.310 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.742 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.297. Data: 50 Waalwijk games / 50 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 35%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Waalwijk 60% | PEC Zwolle 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Waalwijk 1.35 / PEC Zwolle 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.817 / def 1.310 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.742 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 2 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.82) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.74x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.80
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.61
1.26
PEC Zwolle xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.26 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 8W 11D 31L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 13W 13D 24L from 50 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.04 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 0.88 PPG from 25 outings (5W 7D 13L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 10D 11L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.20 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 8W 11D 31L in their last 50 games (0.70 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Waalwijk's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.88 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
3
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 60%, PEC Zwolle 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waalwijk) and 56% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 28% of games; PEC Zwolle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waalwijk's games and 60% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Waalwijk's matches and 56% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.26 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.31 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.74 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 35%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, PEC Zwolle 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.70 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.