Willem II 4-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Willem II, 1.10 for NEC Nijmegen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Willem II, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 59% versus NEC Nijmegen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 49% | NEC Nijmegen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.12 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.671 / defence 1.089 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.855 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.283. Willem II's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Willem II games / 50 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 34% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 38%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | NEC Nijmegen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 50% | NEC Nijmegen 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 34% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Willem II 1.12 / NEC Nijmegen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.671 / def 1.089 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.855 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Willem II 4 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 34% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Willem II and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Willem II and NEC Nijmegen in?
Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Willem II's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.85x) against Willem II's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.31
1.19
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Willem II and 1.19 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II come into this having played 51 games, going 27W 12D 12L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.37 PPG from 51 outings (19W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Willem II's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.78 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 games (1.82 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Willem II's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.96 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 4-1 on 22 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen?
From 5 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 62%, NEC Nijmegen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Willem II and 62% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Willem II's games and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Willem II's matches and 62% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Willem II and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 4-1 hammering of NEC Nijmegen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat NEC Nijmegen 4-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.12 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 34% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 38%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 49%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.