Excelsior 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 17:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AZ Alkmaar's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–5 with AZ Alkmaar winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Excelsior trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

AZ Alkmaar trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 49% versus AZ Alkmaar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | AZ Alkmaar 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.940 / defence 1.201 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.307 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.365. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Excelsior games / 43 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Excelsior 16% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 59%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 1.69. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.09 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 60% | AZ Alkmaar 40%.

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