Excelsior 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

AZ Alkmaar travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior in Eredivisie (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Excelsior have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Excelsior's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, AZ Alkmaar stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

AZ Alkmaar's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 1 for AZ Alkmaar and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended Excelsior 0–5 AZ Alkmaar — a AZ Alkmaar win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Excelsior trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

AZ Alkmaar trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 49% versus AZ Alkmaar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | AZ Alkmaar 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Excelsior surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while AZ Alkmaar have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.09 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.940 / defence 1.201 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.307 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.365. AZ Alkmaar bring a tight defence (rating 0.710, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Excelsior's projected output down. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack rating of 1.307, which lifts their away xG to 2.14. Excelsior's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AZ Alkmaar's projected output up. Data: built from Excelsior's last 44 games and AZ Alkmaar's last 43.

Result probabilities: Excelsior 16% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 59%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 6.20 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 1.70. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.09 / 2.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and AZ Alkmaar's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Excelsior 60% (last 10 home games) | AZ Alkmaar 40% (last 10 away games).

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