Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Almere City FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees FC Volendam travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's home record at Yanmar Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Almere City FC are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 50% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 45% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.29 xG and FC Volendam 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.673 / defence 1.018 | FC Volendam attack 0.906 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.356. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Almere City FC games / 60 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 37% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | FC Volendam 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 30% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 37% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Almere City FC 1.29 / FC Volendam 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.673 / def 1.018 | FC Volendam attack 0.906 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Volendam xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.67) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.49
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
FC Volendam xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.25 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 36L across 60 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 12W 9D 9L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 2W 9D 19L across 30 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.13 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 11D 36L in their last 60 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Volendam away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 53%, FC Volendam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Almere City FC and 67% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Volendam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Almere City FC's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do Almere City FC and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.29 xG and FC Volendam 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.02 against FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 37% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 45%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.