Almere City FC 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Volendam travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC in Eredivisie (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 16:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Almere City FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Almere City FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Almere City FC, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Almere City FC 1–0 FC Volendam — a Almere City FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 50% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 45% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.29 xG and FC Volendam 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.673 / defence 1.018 | FC Volendam attack 0.906 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.356. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 26 games and FC Volendam's last 60.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 37% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 35%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.74 | Draw 3.49 | FC Volendam 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 30% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 37% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Almere City FC 1.29 / FC Volendam 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.673 / def 1.018 | FC Volendam attack 0.906 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Volendam xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs FC Volendam FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Almere City FC 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam part of?
Almere City FC vs FC Volendam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almere City FC and FC Volendam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.67) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 26 games and FC Volendam's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
37%
2.74
29%
3.49
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
FC Volendam xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs FC Volendam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.25 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 36L across 60 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 12W 9D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 2W 9D 19L across their last 30 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.13 scored and 2.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Defensively: Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs FC Volendam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs FC Volendam Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 13W 11D 36L in their last 60 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC Volendam away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Almere City FC's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs FC Volendam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC Volendam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: Almere City FC 1-0 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 53%, FC Volendam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Almere City FC and 67% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Volendam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs FC Volendam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and FC Volendam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and FC Volendam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Almere City FC's matches and 67% of FC Volendam's.
Do Almere City FC and FC Volendam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 80% of FC Volendam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.29 xG and FC Volendam 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.67 / defence 1.02 against FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 37% | Draw 29% | FC Volendam 35%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 45%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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