FC Volendam 0-0 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Feyenoord (87%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Volendam face Feyenoord.

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Analysis & Preview

Feyenoord travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam in Eredivisie (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Thursday 4 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Volendam stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Volendam's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.

Feyenoord — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Feyenoord's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Feyenoord's 2.60 PPG return is 2.20 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Feyenoord have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for FC Volendam. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2023, ended FC Volendam 1–3 Feyenoord — a Feyenoord win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 78%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and Feyenoord 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 67% | Feyenoord 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Volendam surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Feyenoord have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 78% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 0.82 xG and Feyenoord 3.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.633 / defence 1.826 | Feyenoord attack 1.450 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.364. FC Volendam's attack rating of 0.633 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Feyenoord bring a tight defence (rating 0.773, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Volendam's projected output down. Feyenoord have an above-average attack rating of 1.450, which lifts their away xG to 3.61. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.826 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feyenoord's projected output up. Data: built from FC Volendam's last 61 games and Feyenoord's last 61.

Result probabilities: FC Volendam 4% | Draw 9% | Feyenoord 87%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 24.15 | Draw 10.87 | Feyenoord 1.15. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (87%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 87% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.43 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Volendam's last 10 home games and Feyenoord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Volendam 40% (last 10 home games) | Feyenoord 60% (last 10 away games).

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