Vitesse 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 38%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vitesse vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Vitesse welcome Almere City FC to GelreDome in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vitesse have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Vitesse have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almere City FC — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Almere City FC's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Vitesse have won 0, Almere City FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Vitesse 0–5 Almere City FC — a Almere City FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Almere City FC trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 49% versus Almere City FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 54% | Almere City FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.706 / defence 1.018 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.390. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Vitesse's last 59 games and Almere City FC's last 25.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 38% | Draw 32% | Almere City FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.65 | Draw 3.13 | Almere City FC 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vitesse are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vitesse's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitesse 50% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 38% | Draw 32% | Almere City FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Vitesse 1.19 / Almere City FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.706 / def 1.018 | Almere City FC attack 0.735 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Almere City FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitesse vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Vitesse vs Almere City FC kick off?
Vitesse vs Almere City FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Vitesse 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Vitesse vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Almere City FC part of?
Vitesse vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 38% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vitesse and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Vitesse vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vitesse's last 59 games and Almere City FC's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.13
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.23
1.04
Almere City FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.51
9%
10.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitesse vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.04 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse's recent record stands at 14W 14D 31L from 59 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 17L across 59 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 6W 10D 13L from their last 29 home games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 14W 7D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Almere City FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Vitesse (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitesse
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Vitesse vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Vitesse and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 14W 14D 31L in their last 59 games (0.95 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 26W 16D 17L in their last 59 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.97 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Almere City FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Dec 2023, when Almere City FC won Almere City FC 5-0 Vitesse.
Vitesse's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Vitesse
2
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitesse vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitesse have won 0, Almere City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Vitesse 0-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 48%, Almere City FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Vitesse) and 38% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Almere City FC in 41%; Vitesse have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitesse vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitesse and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Vitesse's recent matches and 45% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vitesse and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Vitesse's recent games and 38% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Vitesse's recent matches and 76% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Almere City FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 38% | Draw 32% | Almere City FC 30%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 54%, Almere City FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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