Waalwijk 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Heerenveen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host Heerenveen at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Heerenveen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Heerenveen 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Heerenveen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 55% versus Heerenveen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | Heerenveen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.62 xG and Heerenveen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.858 / defence 1.008 | Heerenveen attack 1.018 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.370. Data: 60 Waalwijk games / 60 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 33%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Heerenveen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Heerenveen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Waalwijk 1.62 / Heerenveen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.858 / def 1.008 | Heerenveen attack 1.018 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Heerenveen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heerenveen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen part of?
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 42% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waalwijk and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heerenveen?
Record (5 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 2 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heerenveen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.86x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
42%
2.38
25%
3.94
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Heerenveen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.41 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 17W 12D 31L from 60 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 27L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.05 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 13W 5D 12L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.45 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heerenveen away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.47 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heerenveen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
4
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heerenveen?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heerenveen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 63%, Heerenveen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 60% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 43% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 60% of Heerenveen's.
Do Waalwijk and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and Heerenveen finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.62 xG and Heerenveen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Heerenveen attack 1.02 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 33%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, Heerenveen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.05 PPG, Heerenveen 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.