Waalwijk 1-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host Heerenveen at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Waalwijk's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Heerenveen have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Heerenveen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 2 for Heerenveen and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Waalwijk 1–3 Heerenveen — a Heerenveen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 55% versus Heerenveen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 60% | Heerenveen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.62 xG and Heerenveen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.858 / defence 1.008 | Heerenveen attack 1.018 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.370. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 60 games and Heerenveen's last 60.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 33%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.38 | Draw 3.94 | Heerenveen 3.06. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Heerenveen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 70% (last 10 home games) | Heerenveen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 27 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Waalwijk 1.62 / Heerenveen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.858 / def 1.008 | Heerenveen attack 1.018 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Heerenveen xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Heerenveen FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Heerenveen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heerenveen part of?
Waalwijk vs Heerenveen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 27) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 42% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Waalwijk and Heerenveen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.86x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 60 games and Heerenveen's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
42%
2.38
25%
3.94
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Heerenveen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
6%
15.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Heerenveen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.41 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 17W 12D 31L from 60 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 27L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.05 PPG, Heerenveen on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 13W 5D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.45 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Heerenveen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Heerenveen Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 12D 31L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heerenveen away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.47 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Feb 2023, when Waalwijk won Heerenveen 1-4 Waalwijk.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
4
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Heerenveen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heerenveen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 2, Heerenveen have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heerenveen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2025: Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 63%, Heerenveen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 60% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Heerenveen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Heerenveen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 43% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waalwijk and Heerenveen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 60% of Heerenveen's.
Do Waalwijk and Heerenveen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 70% of Heerenveen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and Heerenveen finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.62 xG and Heerenveen 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Heerenveen attack 1.02 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 42% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 33%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, Heerenveen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.05 PPG, Heerenveen 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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