Willem II 1-4 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie (matchday 4). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Willem II's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Willem II are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, NAC Breda edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Willem II 1–1 NAC Breda — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 63% and NAC Breda 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.118 / defence 0.789 | NAC Breda attack 0.998 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.238. Willem II have a tight defence (rating 0.789), which is pulling NAC Breda's projected output down. Data: built from Willem II's last 41 games and NAC Breda's last 41.
Result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 18%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.65 | Draw 4.68 | NAC Breda 5.53. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (61%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 50% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 4 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 September 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Willem II 1.97 / NAC Breda 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.118 / def 0.789 | NAC Breda attack 0.998 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Willem II (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.97
NAC Breda xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Willem II vs NAC Breda kick off?
Willem II vs NAC Breda kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Tuesday 5 September 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Willem II 1 - 4 NAC Breda.
Where is Willem II vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs NAC Breda part of?
Willem II vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 4) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 61% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Willem II and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Willem II vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.12) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.00x) against Willem II's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 41 games and NAC Breda's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.68
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.95
0.97
NAC Breda xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
39.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Willem II and 0.97 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 14D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-D.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (20W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Willem II against 1.53 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 14W 3D 4L across their last 21 home games, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.29 points per game from their last 21 away games (8W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.67 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 70%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
Willem II (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Willem II vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 20W 14D 9L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 20W 6D 17L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or NAC Breda away?
Willem II's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.14 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Willem II or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won Willem II 1-4 NAC Breda on 5 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
3
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and NAC Breda?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 1, NAC Breda have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 57%, NAC Breda 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Willem II and 76% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Willem II's games and 71% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Willem II's matches and 76% of NAC Breda's.
Do Willem II and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Willem II's recent matches and 90% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Willem II 1-4 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 0.97 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.0 short of their projected output. NAC Breda outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.12 / defence 0.79 against NAC Breda attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 61% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 18%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.72 PPG, NAC Breda 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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