Groningen 0-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 42%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Groningen vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Willem II at Euroborg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 3). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Groningen's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Willem II — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Willem II's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Groningen, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2022, ended Groningen 1–0 Willem II — a Groningen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 53% versus Willem II 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Willem II 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Groningen surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.59 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.099 / defence 1.080 | Willem II attack 1.039 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.252. Data: built from Groningen's last 2 games and Willem II's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Groningen 42% | Draw 24% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.38 | Draw 4.14 | Willem II 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Groningen 50% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Groningen 2 games, Willem II 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 3 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 42% | Draw 24% | Willem II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Groningen 1.59 / Willem II 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.099 / def 1.080 | Willem II attack 1.039 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Groningen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Willem II kick off?
Groningen vs Willem II kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Groningen 0 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Groningen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Willem II part of?
Groningen vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 3) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 42% chance of winning, Willem II a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Groningen and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Groningen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Groningen's attack rating (1.10) and Willem II's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 2 games and Willem II's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.14
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.00
1.41
Willem II xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Groningen and 1.41 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 5W 6D 25L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Willem II's form line: 18W 10D 8L from 36 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 0.83 PPG from their last 18 home games (4W 3D 11L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 6W 8D 4L from their last 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 64%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
Groningen (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Groningen vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 5W 6D 25L in their last 36 games (0.58 PPG), while Willem II have gone 18W 10D 8L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.83 PPG; Willem II away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Groningen or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Willem II in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Groningen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Groningen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Willem II?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 56%, Willem II 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Groningen and 61% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Groningen's games and 72% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Groningen and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Groningen's matches and 61% of Willem II's.
Do Groningen and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Groningen's recent matches and 83% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and Willem II finished level at 0-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.59 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Willem II attack 1.04 / defence 0.84, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 42% | Draw 24% | Willem II 34%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, Willem II 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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