NAC Breda 1-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 September 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.30 PPG, Roda 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Roda and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 4–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Roda trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 71% and Roda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 69% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.52 xG and Roda 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.046 / defence 1.056 | Roda attack 1.016 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.276. Data: 42 NAC Breda games / 42 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | Roda 34%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 70% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | Roda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG NAC Breda 1.52 / Roda 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.046 / def 1.056 | Roda attack 1.016 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Roda xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Roda kick off?
NAC Breda vs Roda kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 September 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
NAC Breda 1 - 3 Roda.
Where is NAC Breda vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Roda part of?
NAC Breda vs Roda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 41% chance of winning, Roda a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both NAC Breda and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 2 | Roda 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.05x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.04
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.89
1.37
Roda xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.37 for Roda, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 6D 17L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda's form line: 15W 7D 20L from 42 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.50 PPG, Roda on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L).
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 3D 12L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.38 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 19W 6D 17L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Roda have gone 15W 7D 20L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Roda away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.65 PPG; Roda away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Roda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Roda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 70%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (NAC Breda) and 55% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 50% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NAC Breda's matches and 55% of Roda's.
Do NAC Breda and Roda tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Roda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat NAC Breda 1-3 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.52 xG and Roda 1.37 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Roda attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | Roda 34%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 69%, Roda 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.50 PPG, Roda 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.