Jong Ajax 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 34% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jong Ajax have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Willem II (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Willem II have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Jong Ajax, 2 for Willem II and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2023, ended Jong Ajax 1–2 Willem II — a Willem II win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 74% and Willem II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 68% | Willem II 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong Ajax surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Willem II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.081 / defence 0.943 | Willem II attack 0.893 / defence 0.584. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.283. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.584, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Jong Ajax's projected output down. Data: built from Jong Ajax's last 50 games and Willem II's last 50.
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 33% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.01 | Draw 3.06 | Willem II 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — low conviction — though recent form (Jong Ajax's last 10 home games and Willem II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong Ajax 70% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 13 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 33% | Willem II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Jong Ajax 1.06 / Willem II 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.081 / def 0.943 | Willem II attack 0.893 / def 0.584 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Willem II (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Willem II xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II FAQs
What time does Jong Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Jong Ajax 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 13) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 33% chance of winning, Willem II a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong Ajax and Willem II will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Jong Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.08) and Willem II's defence rating (0.58), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.89x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Jong Ajax's last 50 games and Willem II's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.06
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.14
1.08
Willem II xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.08 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 13D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.88 PPG from 50 outings (27W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Ajax's home form reads 8W 8D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 11D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.82 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Willem II in 60%.
Defensively: Willem II in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
Jong Ajax (Home) vs Willem II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II Form FAQs
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Willem II have gone 27W 13D 10L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.33 PPG; Willem II away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Willem II in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Ajax have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Jong Ajax, 58% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jong Ajax) and 50% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Ajax vs Willem II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Ajax and Willem II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Jong Ajax's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong Ajax and Willem II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong Ajax's matches and 50% of Willem II's.
Do Jong Ajax and Willem II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 75% of Willem II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Willem II 1-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.08 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.58, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 33% | Willem II 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 68%, Willem II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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