Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ascoli face Sudtirol.

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Fixture Analysis

Ascoli welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Ascoli have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Ascoli have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.00 PPG, Sudtirol 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ascoli have won 1, Sudtirol 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Ascoli 1–3 Sudtirol — a Sudtirol win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Ascoli in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 37% | Sudtirol 32%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ascoli surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.16 xG and Sudtirol 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.827 / defence 1.001 | Sudtirol attack 0.996 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.194. Data: built from Ascoli's last 60 games and Sudtirol's last 60.

Result probabilities: Ascoli 35% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 36%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.89 | Draw 3.38 | Sudtirol 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Ascoli 40% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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