Como 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Como face Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Como welcome Brescia to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Como have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Como have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brescia — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brescia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Como) versus 1.80 (Brescia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Como have won 2, Brescia 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Como 0–2 Brescia — a Brescia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Como in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 51% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 43% | Brescia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.30 xG and Brescia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.061 / defence 1.034 | Brescia attack 0.992 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.200. Data: built from Como's last 61 games and Brescia's last 61.
Result probabilities: Como 38% | Draw 28% | Brescia 34%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.66 | Draw 3.55 | Brescia 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Como offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Como 50% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 38% | Draw 28% | Brescia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Como 1.30 / Brescia 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.061 / def 1.034 | Brescia attack 0.992 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Como (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Brescia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Como vs Brescia kick off?
Como vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 9 February 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Brescia?
Como 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Como vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Brescia part of?
Como vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Como a 38% chance of winning, Brescia a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Como and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Como vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Como's attack rating (1.06) and Brescia's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Como's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Como's last 61 games and Brescia's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.55
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Como xG
Total xG
2.54
1.23
Brescia xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Como and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Como and 1.23 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Como have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 22W 23D 16L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 16W 22D 23L from 61 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Como on 1.46 PPG, Brescia on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Como have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 10D 6L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 7W 11D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.98 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Brescia
Blended
Como (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Como vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Como and Brescia in coming into this match?
Como have gone 22W 23D 16L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Brescia have gone 16W 22D 23L in their last 61 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Brescia away?
Como's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.73 PPG; Brescia away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Como or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brescia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Como's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Como
1
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Brescia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 3, Brescia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Como and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2024: Como 1-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Como and Brescia?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 53%, Brescia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Como) and 40% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Como's recent matches and 53% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Como and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Como's recent games and 40% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Como's recent matches and 70% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.30 xG and Brescia 1.23 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Brescia attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 38% | Draw 28% | Brescia 34%, with Como to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 43%, Brescia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.46 PPG, Brescia 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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