Sudtirol 1-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sudtirol welcome Pisa to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 0 for Pisa and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Pisa trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 44% versus Pisa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 28% | Pisa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Pisa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.156 / defence 0.995 | Pisa attack 0.765 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.149. Data: 49 Sudtirol games / 50 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 34% | Pisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Pisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 40% | Pisa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 34% | Pisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Sudtirol 1.12 / Pisa 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.156 / def 0.995 | Pisa attack 0.765 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pisa xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Pisa kick off?
Sudtirol vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Sudtirol 1 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Sudtirol vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Pisa part of?
Sudtirol vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 39% chance of winning, Pisa a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sudtirol and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 0 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
39%
2.55
34%
2.92
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.99
0.88
Pisa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.88 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 20W 20D 10L from 50 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 18L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 10W 12D 3L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 6W 11D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.18 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Pisa in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 20D 10L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Pisa have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Pisa away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.68 PPG; Pisa away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Pisa in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sudtirol's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 56%, Pisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Sudtirol and 32% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pisa in 44%; Pisa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sudtirol's recent games and 32% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Pisa tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pisa in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sudtirol 1-2 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Pisa 0.88 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Pisa attack 0.77 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 39% | Draw 34% | Pisa 27%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 28%, Pisa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Pisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.