Brescia 0-3 Cremonese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cremonese at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Cremonese encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Brescia have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Brescia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Cremonese's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cremonese away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Cremonese arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Brescia's last 10 home games and Cremonese's last 10 away games) — Brescia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Cremonese in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2022, ended Brescia 1–2 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Brescia — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 48% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 32% | Cremonese 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 0.90 xG and Cremonese 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.786 / defence 0.965 | Cremonese attack 1.237 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.169. Brescia's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Cremonese have an above-average attack rating of 1.237, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from Brescia's last 49 games and Cremonese's last 12.

Result probabilities: Brescia 23% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 47%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 4.38 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 2.12. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Brescia 60% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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