Modena 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Modena take on Cremonese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cremonese travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena in Serie B (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Modena have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Modena at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cremonese away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Cremonese's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Modena's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Modena 0–4 Cremonese — a Cremonese win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Modena in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Cremonese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.92 xG and Cremonese 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.893 / defence 0.861 | Cremonese attack 0.874 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.243. Data: built from Modena's last 65 games and Cremonese's last 27.
Result probabilities: Modena 32% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 32%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.17 | Draw 2.77 | Cremonese 3.09. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 60% (last 10 home games) | Cremonese 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 32% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Modena 0.92 / Cremonese 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.893 / def 0.861 | Cremonese attack 0.874 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cremonese xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Modena vs Cremonese kick off?
Modena vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Modena 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Modena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cremonese part of?
Modena vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 32% chance of winning, Cremonese a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Modena and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Modena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.89) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 65 games and Cremonese's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
36%
2.77
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Modena xG
Total xG
1.85
0.94
Cremonese xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.6 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Modena and 0.94 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 65 games, going 21W 21D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.18 PPG from 65 outings (19W 20D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.29 PPG, Cremonese on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 12W 12D 8L across their last 32 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 11D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.12 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Modena vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 21W 21D 23L in their last 65 games (1.29 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 19W 20D 26L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cremonese away?
Modena's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.50 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won Cremonese 4-0 Modena.
Modena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cremonese?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Cremonese 0-3 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cremonese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Modena) and 53% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Cremonese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 59% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Modena's recent games and 53% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Modena's recent matches and 56% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.92 xG and Cremonese 0.94 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against Cremonese attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 32% | Draw 36% | Cremonese 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.29 PPG, Cremonese 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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