Ascoli 0-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ascoli face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Reggiana travel to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to take on Ascoli in Serie B (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ascoli have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ascoli at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Reggiana stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggiana away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ascoli) versus 1.50 (Reggiana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Ascoli, 0 for Reggiana and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Ascoli 1–1 Reggiana — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ascoli trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Reggiana trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Reggiana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 37% | Reggiana 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ascoli surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Reggiana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.00 xG and Reggiana 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.790 / defence 0.958 | Reggiana attack 0.975 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.238. Ascoli's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.00. Data: built from Ascoli's last 65 games and Reggiana's last 27.
Result probabilities: Ascoli 29% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 37%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.40 | Draw 3.01 | Reggiana 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggiana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ascoli 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 29% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ascoli 1.00 / Reggiana 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.790 / def 0.958 | Reggiana attack 0.975 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Reggiana xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ascoli vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Ascoli vs Reggiana kick off?
Ascoli vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Reggiana?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Ascoli vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Reggiana part of?
Ascoli vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 29% chance of winning, Reggiana a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ascoli and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ascoli vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ascoli's attack rating (0.79) and Reggiana's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ascoli's last 65 games and Reggiana's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.01
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.16
1.16
Reggiana xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ascoli vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.16 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ascoli come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 9D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.19 PPG from 27 outings (6W 14D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.00 PPG, Reggiana on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ascoli's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across their last 13 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Ascoli are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Ascoli (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ascoli
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Ascoli vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Ascoli and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 6W 14D 7L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.08 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ascoli
2
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Ascoli vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Ascoli have won 0, Reggiana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2024: Ascoli 0-0 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 46%, Reggiana 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ascoli) and 54% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Reggiana in 31%; Ascoli have failed to score in 31% of games; Reggiana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ascoli vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ascoli and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ascoli's recent matches and 46% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ascoli and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ascoli's recent games and 54% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Ascoli's recent matches and 69% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli and Reggiana finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.00 xG and Reggiana 1.16 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against Reggiana attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 29% | Draw 33% | Reggiana 37%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 37%, Reggiana 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.00 PPG, Reggiana 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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