Modena 2-3 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Modena face Feralpisalo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Feralpisalo at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Modena have gone 1W 6D 3L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Modena's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Feralpisalo stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Feralpisalo have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Modena) versus 1.10 (Feralpisalo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Modena, 0 for Feralpisalo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Modena 1–1 Feralpisalo — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Feralpisalo trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 61% versus Feralpisalo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Feralpisalo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.19 xG and Feralpisalo 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.833 / defence 0.869 | Feralpisalo attack 0.794 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Modena's last 66 games and Feralpisalo's last 28.
Result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 33% | Feralpisalo 25%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.39 | Draw 3.00 | Feralpisalo 4.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 42% | Draw 33% | Feralpisalo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Modena 1.19 / Feralpisalo 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.833 / def 0.869 | Feralpisalo attack 0.794 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Feralpisalo xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Modena vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Modena vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Feralpisalo?
Modena 2 - 3 Feralpisalo.
Where is Modena vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Feralpisalo part of?
Modena vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 42% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Modena and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Modena vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.83x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 66 games and Feralpisalo's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.00
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Modena xG
Total xG
2.04
0.86
Feralpisalo xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Modena and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Modena and 0.86 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena's recent record stands at 8W 12D 8L from 28 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 16L across 28 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Modena by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Modena have managed 5W 4D 5L from their last 14 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across their last 14 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Modena (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Current Season
Feralpisalo
Current Season
❓ Modena vs Feralpisalo Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 6W 6D 16L in their last 28 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Feralpisalo away?
Modena's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.36 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
1
Draws
1
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 0, Feralpisalo have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Modena and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2024: Modena 2-3 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Feralpisalo?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 43%, Feralpisalo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Modena) and 50% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 36% of games; Feralpisalo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Feralpisalo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Feralpisalo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Modena's recent matches and 50% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Feralpisalo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Modena's recent games and 50% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Feralpisalo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Modena's recent matches and 64% of Feralpisalo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Feralpisalo defy the odds to beat Modena 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Modena 2-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.19 xG and Feralpisalo 0.86 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Feralpisalo outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against Feralpisalo attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 42% | Draw 33% | Feralpisalo 25%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Feralpisalo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Feralpisalo 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Feralpisalo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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