Pisa 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pisa face Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Pisa at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Pisa, 0.90 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Pisa's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Pisa's games and 80% of Modena's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Pisa, 2 for Modena and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Pisa 0–2 Modena — a Modena win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 59% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 45% | Modena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.55 xG and Modena 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.985 / defence 1.074 | Modena attack 1.022 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.224. Modena's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Pisa's last 64 games and Modena's last 64.
Result probabilities: Pisa 41% | Draw 28% | Modena 31%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.46 | Draw 3.54 | Modena 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pisa 70% (last 10 home games) | Modena 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 41% | Draw 28% | Modena 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Pisa 1.55 / Modena 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.985 / def 1.074 | Modena attack 1.022 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Pisa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Modena xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Modena FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Modena kick off?
Pisa vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Modena?
Pisa 2 - 2 Modena.
Where is Pisa vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Modena part of?
Pisa vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 41% chance of winning, Modena a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pisa and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pisa vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.98x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.02x) against Pisa's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 64 games and Modena's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.54
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.34
Modena xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pisa and 1.34 for Modena, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 23D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (21W 20D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Pisa against 1.30 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 10W 10D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 32 away games (9W 8D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.20 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Modena
Blended
Pisa (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Pisa vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Modena in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 18W 23D 23L in their last 64 games (1.20 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Modena away?
Pisa's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.25 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Pisa and Modena, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Modena have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
4
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 1, Modena have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pisa and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Pisa 1-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Pisa, 66% for Modena — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Pisa) and 59% (Modena). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Pisa's games and 66% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pisa and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Pisa's matches and 59% of Modena's.
Do Pisa and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Pisa's recent matches and 69% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Modena finished level at 2-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.55 xG and Modena 1.34 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 41% | Draw 28% | Modena 31%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 45%, Modena 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.20 PPG, Modena 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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