Cagliari 2-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Sassuolo meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Cagliari have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cagliari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Cagliari's games and 70% of Sassuolo's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Cagliari edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2022, ended Cagliari 1–0 Sassuolo — a Cagliari win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 56% versus Sassuolo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.74 xG and Sassuolo 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.941 / defence 1.442 | Sassuolo attack 1.284 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.150. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Sassuolo have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 2.13. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.442 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sassuolo's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 14 games and Sassuolo's last 52.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 47%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.19 | Draw 4.52 | Sassuolo 2.15. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.74 / 2.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and Sassuolo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 80% (last 10 home games) | Sassuolo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 11 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Cagliari 1.74 / Sassuolo 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.941 / def 1.442 | Sassuolo attack 1.284 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Sassuolo xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Sassuolo FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Sassuolo kick off?
Cagliari vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 11 December 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Cagliari vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Sassuolo part of?
Cagliari vs Sassuolo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Cagliari and Sassuolo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cagliari vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.28x) against Cagliari's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 14 games and Sassuolo's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
31%
3.19
22%
4.52
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.87
2.13
Sassuolo xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.41
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
4%
26.83
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Sassuolo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cagliari and 2.13 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cagliari's recent record stands at 17W 20D 15L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 24L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cagliari against 1.15 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 13W 9D 3L from their last 25 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across their last 25 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.31 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
Cagliari (Home) vs Sassuolo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Cagliari vs Sassuolo Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 20D 15L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Sassuolo away?
Cagliari's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.92 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cagliari
1
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Sassuolo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 3, Sassuolo have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Sassuolo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Sassuolo 2-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Sassuolo?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Cagliari, 60% for Sassuolo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cagliari) and 68% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Sassuolo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Sassuolo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 60% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Sassuolo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Cagliari's matches and 68% of Sassuolo's.
Do Cagliari and Sassuolo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Cagliari's recent matches and 80% of Sassuolo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Sassuolo 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.74 xG and Sassuolo 2.13 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.94 / defence 1.44 against Sassuolo attack 1.28 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 22% | Sassuolo 47%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.37 PPG, Sassuolo 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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