Monza 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to U-Power Stadium to face Monza in Serie A (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Monza (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genoa have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Monza against 1.10 for Genoa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 50% versus Genoa 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 40% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.53 xG and Genoa 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.947 / defence 0.935 | Genoa attack 0.728 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.158. Genoa's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Monza's last 52 games and Genoa's last 14.
Result probabilities: Monza 54% | Draw 27% | Genoa 18%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.84 | Draw 3.66 | Genoa 5.43. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Monza's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 54% | Draw 27% | Genoa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Monza 1.53 / Genoa 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.947 / def 0.935 | Genoa attack 0.728 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Monza (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monza vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Monza vs Genoa kick off?
Monza vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Genoa?
Monza 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Monza vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Genoa part of?
Monza vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 54% chance of winning, Genoa a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Monza and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Monza vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Monza's attack rating (0.95) and Genoa's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.73x) against Monza's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Monza's last 52 games and Genoa's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.66
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Monza xG
Total xG
2.32
0.79
Genoa xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
25.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monza vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Monza and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Monza and 0.79 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monza's recent record stands at 18W 16D 18L from 52 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 13L across 52 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Monza against 1.71 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monza have managed 9W 9D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 10W 6D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.31 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Monza (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monza
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Monza vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Monza and Genoa in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Genoa have gone 25W 14D 13L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Genoa away?
Monza's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.38 PPG; Genoa away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Monza or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Genoa in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Genoa have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Monza vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Genoa?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Monza have won 2, Genoa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2025: Genoa 2-0 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Monza) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Genoa in 31%; Genoa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monza vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monza and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Monza's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monza and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Monza's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Monza's recent matches and 62% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Genoa 1-0 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.53 xG and Genoa 0.79 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Genoa attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 54% | Draw 27% | Genoa 18%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 40%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.35 PPG, Genoa 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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