Sassuolo 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 37%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sassuolo vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sassuolo welcome AS Roma to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sassuolo stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Sassuolo have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Sassuolo's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sassuolo, 1 for AS Roma and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Mar 2023, ended Sassuolo 4–3 AS Roma — a Sassuolo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 59% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sassuolo 57% | AS Roma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.37 xG and AS Roma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.002 / defence 1.211 | AS Roma attack 0.952 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.179. Sassuolo's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Sassuolo's last 51 games and AS Roma's last 51.
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 37% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 36%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.70 | Draw 3.77 | AS Roma 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sassuolo at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sassuolo's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sassuolo 70% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 37% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Sassuolo 1.37 / AS Roma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.002 / def 1.211 | AS Roma attack 0.952 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.36
AS Roma xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sassuolo vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Sassuolo vs AS Roma kick off?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Sassuolo 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Sassuolo vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs AS Roma part of?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 37% chance of winning, AS Roma a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sassuolo and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sassuolo vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sassuolo's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sassuolo's last 51 games and AS Roma's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.77
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.73
1.36
AS Roma xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
10%
10.53
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sassuolo vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.36 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 51 games, going 16W 12D 23L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.65 PPG from 51 outings (24W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across their last 25 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.28 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
Sassuolo (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sassuolo
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Sassuolo vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 24W 12D 15L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or AS Roma away?
Sassuolo's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.32 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AS Roma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2026, when AS Roma won AS Roma 3-0 Sassuolo.
Sassuolo's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
2
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Sassuolo vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sassuolo have won 1, AS Roma have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: AS Roma 3-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 60%, AS Roma 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sassuolo) and 48% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sassuolo vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sassuolo and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sassuolo's games and 64% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sassuolo and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sassuolo's recent games and 48% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sassuolo and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 76% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.37 xG and AS Roma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 37% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 36%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 57%, AS Roma 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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