Salernitana 1-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Bologna encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Bologna in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Salernitana (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

In front of their own supporters, Salernitana have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Salernitana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bologna have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Bologna have posted 2W 7D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 1.10 PPG clear of Salernitana over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Salernitana's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — Salernitana have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bologna in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bologna edge it 1 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Salernitana 2–2 Bologna — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Bologna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 56% | Bologna 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Salernitana surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.10 xG and Bologna 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.887 / defence 1.320 | Bologna attack 0.944 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.150. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 52 games and Bologna's last 52.

Result probabilities: Salernitana 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.52 | Draw 3.62 | Bologna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Salernitana's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salernitana 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 80% (last 10 away games).

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