Waterford 4-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Longford Town at 39%, yet in-form Waterford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs Longford Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Waterford Regional Sports Centre plays host to Waterford versus Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 25). Kick-off: Friday 20 August 2021 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Waterford's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Waterford have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Longford Town (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Longford Town away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Waterford's 1.90 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Longford Town's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Waterford edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jun 2021, ended Waterford 2–1 Longford Town — a Waterford win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Waterford half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Longford Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 42% versus Longford Town 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 58% | Longford Town 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.95 xG and Longford Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.745 / defence 1.397 | Longford Town attack 0.661 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 1.195. Waterford's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Waterford's defence rating of 1.397 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 24 games and Longford Town's last 24.
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 30% | Longford Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.31 | Longford Town 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Longford Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Longford Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waterford 30% (last 10 home games) | Longford Town 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 25 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 20 August 2021 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 30% | Longford Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Waterford 0.95 / Longford Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.745 / def 1.397 | Longford Town attack 0.661 / def 1.306 | league avg home 0.980 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Longford Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Longford Town xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Longford Town kick off?
Waterford vs Longford Town kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 20 August 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Longford Town?
Waterford 4 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Waterford vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Longford Town part of?
Waterford vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 25) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Longford Town a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Longford Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Waterford and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Waterford vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Waterford's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Longford Town's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Longford Town's attack (0.66x) against Waterford's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 24 games and Longford Town's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Longford Town Win
31%
3.23
30%
3.31
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.06
1.10
Longford Town xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.1 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Waterford and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Waterford and 1.10 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waterford come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 1D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Longford Town sit at 0.46 PPG from 24 outings (1W 8D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Waterford carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Longford Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Waterford's home form reads 3W 1D 7L across their last 11 home games, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Longford Town have taken 0.45 points per game from their last 11 away games (0W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waterford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waterford are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.62 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
Waterford (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 8W 1D 15L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 1W 8D 15L in their last 24 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Longford Town away?
Waterford's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 0.91 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 13 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won Waterford 4-1 Longford Town on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Longford Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Longford Town have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Waterford and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 November 2021: Longford Town 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Longford Town?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 36%, Longford Town 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Waterford) and 36% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 36% of games; Longford Town in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Longford Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Longford Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Waterford's recent matches and 64% of Longford Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waterford and Longford Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Waterford's recent games and 36% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Longford Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Waterford's recent matches and 73% of Longford Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waterford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Longford Town 4-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.95 xG and Longford Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.74 / defence 1.40 against Longford Town attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 30% | Longford Town 39%, with Longford Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 58%, Longford Town 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Longford Town's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Longford Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.