Longford Town 0-3 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Longford Town face Finn Harps.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Longford Town and Finn Harps meet at Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 20:30 UK time.

Current Form

Longford Town's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Longford Town's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Finn Harps away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Longford Town against 0.80 for Finn Harps. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Jun 2021, ended Longford Town 1–1 Finn Harps — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Longford Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 50% versus Finn Harps 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Longford Town 36% | Finn Harps 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.83 xG and Finn Harps 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.619 / defence 1.364 | Finn Harps attack 0.720 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.221. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.619 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Finn Harps's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 23 games and Finn Harps's last 22.

Result probabilities: Longford Town 25% | Draw 30% | Finn Harps 45%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 3.93 | Draw 3.35 | Finn Harps 2.24. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Longford Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 50% (last 10 away games).

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