St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 Longford Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Longford Town encounter.

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Analysis

Longford Town make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 3 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 8W 0D 2L at Richmond Park — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.

Longford Town's overall Premier Division record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Longford Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Longford Town away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in St Patrick's Athl.'s favour (1.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: St Patrick's Athl. 2W, Longford Town 0W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Jun 2021, ended 3–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Longford Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 64% versus Longford Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 52% | Longford Town 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.91 xG and Longford Town 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.236 / defence 0.895 | Longford Town attack 0.659 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.211. Longford Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 St Patrick's Athl. games / 25 Longford Town games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 66% | Draw 21% | Longford Town 13%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Longford Town 7.69. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Longford Town 60%.

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