Sligo Rovers 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Derry City make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at The Showgrounds this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derry City have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.70 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Sligo Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 41% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 27% | Derry City 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.06 xG and Derry City 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.987 / defence 0.954 | Derry City attack 0.848 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.191. Data: 22 Sligo Rovers games / 24 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 37% | Draw 31% | Derry City 32%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 37% | Draw 31% | Derry City 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.06 / Derry City 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.987 / def 0.954 | Derry City attack 0.848 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Derry City xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 37% chance of winning, Derry City a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Derry City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sligo Rovers's attack rating (0.99) and Derry City's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.85x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 22/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.27
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
Derry City xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.96 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 11W 5D 6L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City's form line: 9W 7D 6L from 22 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.55 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.27 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Derry City have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.50 PPG; Derry City away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Derry City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 22 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Derry City 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 40%, Derry City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Sligo Rovers and 40% for Derry City.
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 40% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Derry City tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Derry City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Sligo Rovers 1-2 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.06 xG and Derry City 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Derry City attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 22/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 37% | Draw 31% | Derry City 32%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 27%, Derry City 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.73 PPG, Derry City 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.