Union Berlin 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Union Berlin 0W, Bayer Leverkusen 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus Bayer Leverkusen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.897 / defence 0.933 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.257 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.432. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Union Berlin games / 61 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 22% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.04. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 22% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Union Berlin 1.09 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.897 / def 0.933 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.257 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Bayer Leverkusen xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 22% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 3 | Bayer Leverkusen 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.26x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
22%
4.51
29%
3.45
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.77
1.68
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
4%
24.22
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.68 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 26W 13D 22L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 37W 12D 12L from 61 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (17W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 7D 6L from 30 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 13D 22L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 37W 12D 12L in their last 61 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.97 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
4
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 63% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union Berlin's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Union Berlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 0-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.26 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 22% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, Bayer Leverkusen 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.